10. Can the Grizzlies continue to play as well with Rudy Gay?
One year ago, this would have seemed like a funny question. Rudy Gay was regarded as the leader and best player on the playoff-fringe Grizzlies before his season-ending shoulder injury. But as the rest of the season played on and the Grizzlies clinched their first playoff berth in 5 years, it was not clear who the leader was. You could make arguments for Zach Randolph, who focused and became an ultra-effective (and largely un-stoppable) post-presence and rebounding machine, or Tony Allen, who's pedigree and superior defense inspired the rest of the team. Regardless of what your opinion is, these Grizzlies could ball, and they were not afraid of anyone. Drawing the-top seeded Spurs in the first round who boasted the west's best record, the Grizzlies refused to back down, putting the Spurs' backs against the wall and ultimately knocking them out in the first round. In the second round, this old-school, wear-'em-down Grizzlies team went back and forth with the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder, before falling short in 7 games of an absolutely thrilling series. AND THIS WAS ALL WITHOUT RUDY GAY! Their 80 million dollar player. Point Mike Conley played like the seemingly fat contract he was given the year before, Randolph continued to dominate and Allen continued to inspire, Marc Gasol helped Randolph crashed the boards and added offense (and stayed in the playoffs longer than his brother Pau), and 2-guard OJ Mayo played strong defense and drained momentum-building threes. (I guess I should mention Greivis Vazquez poured his heart into the playoffs, which surprised even Terps fans.) They played so cohesively as a unit and brought out the true meaning of team. Following the team's elimination, Grizz owner Michael Heisley made public comments stating that the team has no intention of trading Gay and that Gay's future is in Memphis. And I say good decision by Michael. The Grizzlies got smacked in Game 7 against the Thunder. What was missing was another threat. Conley can drive and shoot, but those skills are not superior and they are not always on. Randolph may be the best offensive power forward in the league, but he needs a sidekick, and someone who can slash while Randolph draws the double team. Gasol has a little finesse down-low, but he is young and has some raw talent. OJ Mayo may not be back next season, but his shooting lends a big hand to the Memphis offense. Gay is that missing offensive piece. He is near the top of the league and creating his own shot, and he has some pop from the outside. Look for the Grizzlies to move higher into the conversation of contenders next year (if Randolph doesn't party too much).
9. What will happen with Deron Williams and Chris Paul?
The words and actions of this pair and Dwight Howard are so puzzling that many questions will just have to be answered at next year's February trade deadline or at the season's end. Deron Williams is the league's most powerful and strong point guard. Also, with the game on the line, any coach would trust the ball in Deron Williams hands to get a good shot. Chris Paul, despite some lost speed and strength from his knee issues, still has the quickest eyes and hands and can run an offense to perfection. Deron has said that he is happy in New Jersey after his half season there after Utah surprisingly shipped him for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and draft picks. However, he will not stay there without help. The Dwight Howard drama will have coverage as intense as the LeBron and Carmelo situations, but Deron's future could be largely decided by the conclusion to that. New Jersey has lost valuable assets in acquiring Dwight and that hurts the likelihood for Mikhail Prokhorov and the Nets management to land a mid-season trade. Chris Paul has said that he would like to leave New Orleans but later retracted that, signing a short extension and stating his loyalty to the city of New Orleans and its Hornets. But the media will never believe that, or does not want to believe that, and have made huge deals out of small things such as Chris Paul wearing a Yankee hat in public. The truth is, you couldn't blame CP3 for salivating at the thought of being able to set up offensive forces such as Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire for the New York Knicks. Paul's future could also hinge on Dwight Howard's future, which will be discussed later.
8. Are the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs done?
Charles Barkley, controversial but insightful NBA analyst, has said that the signs of Kevin Garnett's age and miles are starting to show, citing his 1-10 from the floor in Game 4 in the Eastern Conference semi-finals after a strong 28 points and 18 rebounds in Game 3 of that series. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have defied age in the length of their astounding careers in the ways Pierce still gets to the foul line and Ray still continues to drain 3-pointer after 3-pointer. But all good things come to an end. Rajon Rondo, tough and bruised and arguably the team's best player, provides the youth for the team's young stars. But are they buried by the starpower of the Heat and the physicality of the Chicago Bulls? With Doc Rivers' surprising extension to stay with the team for a few more years and the grit of the players, you can never count the Celtics out. But the likely answer is yes, they are done. The prospect for Dwight Howard is still on the table, which would answer the glaring hole the Perkins trade and the Shaquille O'Neal retirement have left in the middle of the Boston lineup, but that prospect is still dim. The likelihood of the old C's getting passed especially the youth and energy of the Heat is also dim.
The Spurs' glory years seem to be over. Tim Duncan's glorious career and ascent to the top 10 basketball players of all-time is dwindling after four rings and 13 all-star seasons. He cannot hold his ground on the defensive post against quicker players (showcased in Round One of the playoffs against Zach Randolph and the Grizzlies) and he no longer draws double teams. Manu Ginobili continues to fear opposing teams as he drains increasingly difficult shots, displays pretty spin moves down the lane, and executes the infamous Manu flops to draw offensive fouls, but he has trouble staying on the floor with injuries. Tony Parker is now being outplayed by the part of the game that he dominated, getting to the rim faster than the eyes can believe, by Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook; and he gets bullied by stronger point guards such as Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo. The youth of the team, DeJaun Blair, George Hill, and James Anderson, are talented but do not look quite good enough to continue the legacy that Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will leave from their time in San Antonio. This team is not strong enough to contend with Oklahoma City, Dallas, Los Angeles, Memphis, and even the athleticism of Denver out in the West.
7. Do the New York Knicks have more to bring to their starving fans?
This question is tough to answer. While I believe Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire will learn to gel together more in their offense and they will certainly make the playoffs barring injury (like Amar'e's uninsured knees) this is an organization with a lot of questions. The departure of Donnie Walsh is frightening (Isaiah's return notwithstanding). Walsh brought the Knicks out of the depths of hell that Isaiah Thomas's tenure. He got rid of all the bad contracts and made New York a desirable situation for Amar'e, and, in effect and in addition to the lights and draw of the city, led Carmelo to state this as his destination. But he's gone now, and so doubt creeps in that the organization can bring in more chips to put together more of a monster. The most positive thing that exists with this team, however, and something that gives any team a chance no matter what, is Carmelo Anthony's ability to score any time. He gets to the line and besides Dirk, is the guy I want with the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, D'Antoni is not a good fit for this team. The fact that in his defense sets he could have all players walk off the floor and be just as ineffective is not the issue. He got far in a loaded West in the playoffs with his Suns teams. The problem is that he cannot create an offense that helps Carmelo and Amar'e coexist. Carmelo is a ball-stopper and is more effective in a slow-down game. The ideal offense is the triangle offense, but any other offense would help this team more. Brian Shaw and Rick Adelman are better fits for this team. Let me put it this way, if D'Antoni is gone (and the Walsh departure helps that because of their close relationship), I feel a lot better of the Knicks prospects in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference.
6. Can the Thunder fix their chemistry problems and harness their potential to control the West?
Questions came from every media angle concerning the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook dynamic and chemistry offensively for the Thunder after their trouncing in the Western Conference Finals at the hands of the eventual championship Dallas Mavericks team. Is Durant getting irked by the number of shots Russell takes? Does Durant have command of his offense? Can Scott Brooks coach these two together? Here is my answer to all of that. SHUT UP! This is another instance of the media blowing a situation out of proportion. Let me give you the ages of the Thunder's most important players going forward. Durant, 22. Westbrook, 22. James Harden, 21. Serge Ibaka, 21. This was each of these players second ever playoffs and fourth ever playoff series. They made the Western Conference Finals at these young ages. The defending champs, the Lakers, didn't make it that far, nor did the defending Eastern Conference champs, the Celtics. This young team dominated the athletic and dynamic Denver Nuggets, and ended up on top in a 7-game war with the Grizzlies, one of the best series of the playoffs. They imploded, but this team still hasn't come close to reaching their ceiling. James Harden was let free by the Jeff Green trade. He increased his stock heavily after these playoffs. He got to the foul line, made game-changing threes, played great defense, and faked some hits to give his team calls (that's not as important, but he's approaching the Manu/JJ Barea threshold of expert flopping). Serge Ibaka will only get better. He will almost certainly become the league's best shot-blocker and continue frighten opposing players going to the rim while he plays free safety. Add to that his electrifying dunks and the still-improving 18-foot jumper. Eric Maynor may be the best backup point guard in the league, and could start for many other teams (the Heat and the Lakers would drool if he was on their squads). Kendrick Perkins, much maligned by much of the media for his playoff performance, is still so valuable for the little things he can bring for his team, including his championship pedigree, pushing opposing players slightly off the block to get them out of position in the post, and that blood-curdling scowl that keeps officials up at night. Nick Collison was an underrated re-signing. Collison played the best defense Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki saw throughout the playoffs. He brings an energy and veteran presence unseen through the rest of the team. Durant and Westbrook will play better together. Westbrook is still learning to play the point guard position and as he grows older will learn the spots his teammates need to be in to have the best opportunity to score. Durant is already a two-time scoring champ and will always find ways to score, getting to the rim on back-door cuts, drawing the foul (he rarely misses free-throws, running out on the fast-break, and the three-pointer can still see improvement. The Westbrook/Durant pick-and-roll is so effective, baffling defenders on whether to switch or whether to fight through the screen. Thabo Sefalosha probably needs to be dealt, as his role (perimeter defense) was not seen in the later rounds of the Thunder's playoff runs. But with all the pieces in place, put your money on the Thunder to win the West a bunch of times in the next decade. They will get their chance to fight for the Larry O'Brien trophy.
5. What to the Chicago Bulls need to do to get to the next level?
This answer is a little more simple. The Bulls need desperately a 2-guard to go to war with at both ends. Kyle Korver can find nylon on an off-ball screen three point shot, but he couldn't defend Erik Spoelstra if he was on the floor. Keith Bogans' confidence is higher than his ability, and is certainly expendable. Ronnie Brewer can play defense but struggles to find his shot. If the Bulls could have made a play at OJ Mayo at the trading deadline, the team much more complete from top to bottom. Hopefully for Chicago fans the organization can fill that void. Rose will get better, Noah is the second-best defensive center in the league, Deng is a great second scorer, and Taj Gibson provides a ton of energy and length off the bench. Boozer will play better. He had trouble getting into the groove of the season after his energy and filling in comfortably with his new team. He is less of a worry than one may think. But back to the topic of age, Rose, their unquestioned leader and best player, is only 22. The Bulls have a high ceiling as well.
4. Can the Lakers situation be fixed?
The Lakers showed that they have more problems than meets the eye. If you were to tell me that they would be swept in the second round of the playoffs during their incredible run after all-star break, I would have told you you were crazy. But their flaws manifested themselves while they fell to the Mavericks. While Kobe is old, he is still Kobe Bryant. He just needs more help. Lamar Odom is still the NBA's best sixth man and will still help this team, but if I were Lakers management I would be happier if he spent less time on the Entertainment Network and more time shooting jump shots. But what happened to Pau Gasol, the artist formerly known as the Savant of the Offensive Post? He played scared and made costly turnovers and put up bad shots. He looked lost on the floor. As already mentioned, he was severely outplayed by his brother Marc in the playoffs. Maybe it was the personal problems off the court and the story of his girlfriend allegedly sleeping with a teammate (Shannon Brown?). But Pau needs to be Pau. And the Lakers will surely benefit from that. Derek Fisher is obviously old and, through his playoff heroics, needs to have a better replacement that can stay in front of opposing guards. In that respect, I do not know who is on the table for the Laker's to acquire (is Roddy Beaubois still untouchable? Wait, do we even know if he's any good?). Ron Arest (or what's left of Ron Artest) should not be an issue, because the new CBA may allow the Lakers to dump his contract. Corey Brewer may be able to fill that void should he be available. Andrew Bynum needs to grow up. Although hard fouls can be good for a team defensively if opposing teams believe they can drive to the rim at will, his late season fouls were unnecessary and dangerous. Do the Lakers trade Bynum and other assets for Dwight Howard? It is certainly a possibility. Dwight needs a new cast if he can enhance his legacy, and he would love to play with Kobe. Obviously, so much of what is going to happen next year in the NBA depends on where Dwight Howard is going to end up. The Lakers situation is another example of that. The Lakers, as presently constructed, are growing old and the youth of other teams in the West are catching up, namely the Oklahoma City Thunder. The dominance of the conference throughout the last decade will not come nearly as easily as it has in years past.
3. Can the Mavericks repeat?
Nothing is sure with the competitiveness of the league right now for what the outcome will be. But with Dirk Nowitzki at the helm of this ship, anything is possible. Dirk is part of the new generation of stars that even when you think their skills will decline, they continue to get better at different parts of the game. He will still make eye-opening shots fading away on one foot. He will still be practically flawless from the three point line, and he will still find all his spots. Jason Terry, in his role, can still play until his late thirties. A jumper like that is valuable to any NBA team, and is perfect for this contender. Jason Kidd may only have a little time in his career, but he's found out how to play the point guard position as effectively as possible, as shown in my last post. Chandler, also mentioned in my last post, does so many things so effectively, but his contract has to be worked out for the Mavericks to keep him. For many of the reasons mentioned in my last post, this team can win an NBA championship, but they have a great number of teams only getting better that lay in their way.
2. Where the hell is Dwight Howard going to be?
Carmelo and LeBron all over again. The media loves this sort of situation and it feeds off of it. Dwight, like Deron Williams and Chris Paul, have confused people who have tried to understand what he wants. At the base of this problem, one of his desires is outwardly clear: he needs better teammates to compete. And not what Otis Smith supplied him with in those trades early last season. Hedo Turkoglu, although not the Hedo on the 2009 Eastern Conference Champion Magic team, provided some energy and effective pick-and-rolls with Dwight. And Jason Richardson was a great piece from those trades. But Gilbert Arenas turned out to be a failure. Whatever Gilbert did well in his best days in Washington he could not carry over into Orlando, and the "Gilbert off the bench" project did not return dividends for the Magic. That huge contract is an ugly thing for Orlando management to look at as they look towards the future. This newly constructed team could not get passed the first round of the playoffs, despite Dwight's monster numbers, and it was easy to see how frustrated he was throughout it. In recent comments, Dwight said that he wanted to start his own path and not leave town for other stars (while taking a shot at Shaq). However, the max contract is on the table, so it is clear that Dwight is staying he definitely wants to stay in Orlando. It would be more accurate to say he wants to try to get CP3 or Deron or another star to come play for the Magic on his side. This problem will not be settled for Dwight unless he plays with someone he believes can help him win a championship. My hope is that he would be traded to New Jersey to play with D-Will, but it is not safe to say that will happen. This is one of the bigger mysteries going into the new season.
1. Can LeBron James get it together and win?
LeBron is going to win the championship in the next few years, and maybe he will win more than that. But needless to say, he has work to do. This year it was his to win. With Dwyane Wade putting together an unbelievable series, Chris Bosh having a few great games himself, Udonis Haslem battling Dirk, and Mario Chalmers showing he was not afraid of the moment (for better or for worse, but in this series, better), LeBron just needed to score and get to the rim more for his team to have a better chance. But he was afraid of the moment and uncomfortable in the fourth quarter especially. Late in games, he continually deferred to his teammates when he had open looks. He was tentative to exploit glaring defensive mismatches, like when Berea was caught in a switch, or when Terry or Kidd guarded him. LeBron could not get it together. He needs to focus more on his game getting better and less on shooting commercials and increasing his brand awareness. LeBron, you have the highest selling jersey of the 2010-2011 season. You are showcased on billboards and advertisements throughout the country. We have all seen your bad acting in State Farm commercials. Now please get in the gym and develop a go-to move. LeBron is the most talented athlete I have ever seen in my life. He has the size (6 feet 8 inches, 275 pounds). He has the speed and quickness. Now please put that all together so I don't have to see that talent wasted. If he had a go-to, greatly effective post move, that would elevate his game to where it matters more than just putting points on the board. It establishes an intangible that makes him a better player whether he has the ball or not. It puts fear in the defenders' minds. Fear is what has made so many players and teams better through the years. Michael Jordan's opponents feared his driving and his low-post moves, so he pulled up and hit the mid-range shot. Opponents fear Kobe's mid-range shot, so he drove around the defender if he got too close. Hakeem Olajuwon made opponents respect him in the paint, so he kicked it out to his perimeter players when he got open. Every time an opponent adjusts to their fears defensively, it opens another hole for the offensive player to exploit. LeBron needs that. But he also needs to do what he does best and what Wade did throughout the Finals, and that is drive to the basket and take contact. Getting to the line is critical for LeBron's success. No matter that he doesn't shoot from the line as well as Steve Nash or Durant or Dirk. The number of times he gets there outweighs the misses when he is on his game. He needs to get back to that when it matters. That will be the difference between hoisting the trophy and having a parade throughout the streets of Miami, and walking into the tunnel without shaking the opponents hands. So please LeBron. We are all waiting.
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