Thursday, March 21, 2013

NBA March Madness

Naturally at this time of year, all anyone can talk about is the NBA! So I brought in another man, Charlie Osborn, a man who also has a great affinity for Pro Hoops, to have a discussion about a variety of NBA stuff with Brian Musto and I. So, here's our three-man weave. Come see me Bill Simmons!

ER: Hello fellas, 

I don't know if the two of you are acquainted, but I know the three of us are basketball nerds, and we have the power to form the Holy Triumvirate of NBA-obsessed losers in an e-mail chain. "Reply all" in this joint if you know what I'm sayin'!

Before we get to the playoff picture and three-quarters-into-the-season thoughts (as well as our picks for awards), Brian, please deliver a eulogy for the 2012-2013 Philadelphia 76ers, as well as ideas on the future of Doug Collins, Andrew Bynum's looming free agency (what team will he end up on/what kind of contract?), and the future of the organization in general.

Tracy Morgan meets Fred Douglass
BM: The 76ers season was over before it started, but no one saw it coming. The front office thought they fleeced the NBA by dumping Iguodala and prospects for the most talented offensive center in the NBA. (Look at those prospects now). Doug Collins nearly burst at the Olympics when Doc Rivers told him the big man that gives the Celtics the most trouble is the big bruiser from Jersey. Then, I drafted him eleventh overall in our fantasy league, effectively ruining his career. 

All jokes aside, Doug Collins runs an offense stuck in 1992 prefaced on mid-range jumpers and constraining Jrue Holiday. The 3-year Collins effect has kicked in and his time in Philly is over. The organization has finally got itself out of neutral... and in to reverse. Every egg they had was placed into the Bynum Basket (hey its almost Easter right?), which now looks as barren as a Portland buffet after Ray Felton had his way last year. Jrue Holiday is the only bright spot left and is locked up to a good contract for the next 4 years. 

Who goes after Bynum? Philly won't want to lose him. Houston and Cleveland will inquire about him. He belongs with the miracle medical staff in Phoenix but I doubt he goes there. From the guy who once said "Every city has a bank right?" this is going to come down to the money. I cant see him getting more than 2 guaranteed years with a 3rd year team option at $10 mil per. However, I would not surprise me if he gets overpaid by a team and snags $15 mil for a year or 2. If I had to predict I would say he stays in Philly because they invested too much to let him walk. Honestly though, who knows?
 
CO: Yeah, that's pretty well said.

Doug Collins needs to kick rocks, Jrue Holiday, Thad Young, Charles Jenkins (QUEENS!), and Lavoy Allen (even though he hardly plays anymore) might be the only keepers on the roster. In short, the Sixers, as a team on the lower end of the free agent desirability spectrum, needed to gamble for a home run like Bynum. So far, fart noises.

If I were them, I would unabashedly tank next year in the absolute worst way. If they can manage to get a quasi-hometown discount (nah) and grab Bynum for reasonable cash, I literally would not play him one game next season no matter what. I would just tell him to sit down until next year, so there's no pressure to come back. This would serve the purpose of getting Bynum healthy, as well as to put themselves in the running for the #1 overall pick. That pick will mean more in 2014, because it will carry with it Andrew Wiggins, who might be alright at basketball when it's all said and done. A kid of clownish proportions, Wiggins will go #1 in 2014, would go #1 overall this year if he were eligible, and would have battled for #1 with Anthony Davis in last year's draft as a 16-17 year old. If the Sixers get that guy, they'll be fine.

However, even if they don't they should look to that draft for a cornerstone. Julius Randle, one of the Harrisons; they need cheap difference-making players. There are two ways to do things in the NBA: keep paying tons of money to get great players, fluctuate between being considered very good and a "huge disappointment" (big market teams), or to stink so freaking bad for an extended period of time that you can accrue players who are actually assets to your organization. Philadelphia has been too reticent to accept this inevitability, so they've been trying to act like the Knicks or Clippers or Celtics or what have you. I'm not denigrating the city, but for some reason NBA players don't seem to love it there.

Fire Collins and tank like good honest Americans for a Canadian prospect whose game resembles Len Bias. What could go wrong?
 
ER: Only problem with the tanking proposition is they would need to sit Thad and Jrue as well, I think those guys would keep them in the 10-14 pick range.

Ryen Russillo had an interesting thought this week (although it would likely start a riot at the NBAPA offices). If he were a league executive, he would offer Bynum a 3 years, $30M contract, and if Bynum quickly accepts, rescind the offer. Point being, Bynum will likely receive somewhere between 4 years, $44M and 4 years, $48 (by a panicking front office), and it will be a shock if he does not get offered that. If that's the asking price, Philly can't sign up for that.

Let's move to the top of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, namely New York, Indiana, and Boston. Who gets to 6 games with Miami? Dare I say a 7th game in any series? Basically my question in regards to the EC playoffs is: Is there anything really to discuss?

CO: I wouldn't pay that clown a dime, but if it's their prerogative to continue this charade with a 7 foot man with two hurt knees who jumps up and down for a living, who am I to step in?

In my opinion, there's nothing to discuss about the Eastern conference playoffs at all. I'm going to marvel at every single Miami loss. This is the most boring part of the season for everyone; for them to motivate themselves to challenge a modern NBA nigh-unbreakable record, it's going to be fascinating to see what level they can reach in the playoffs.

I think their longest series will be five games until the Finals, and I think the only teams who could take them to six games from West are probably Memphis and San Antonio.
 
BM: As a proponent of great fundamental basketball I'd like nothing more than a Spurs-Heat final. The Heat are about to "2000-01 Lakers" the East on their run to the finals. The interesting series will be the ones without the Heat. I'm hoping for a 2nd round (or maybe even 1st round) NYK/BKN series. I'd like to see Indiana play Boston so that I can just avoid 6 games of the playoffs. I doubt D. Rose plays so I'd like to see Chicago out. Boston is the team no east team wants to face early on, but I think they are right in the pack behind Miami and are not appreciably better than any of the other teams. I'll still watch every Miami game because LeBron is giving me stories to tell my grandkids on a daily basis. 

I'll be glued to the Western Playoffs.  OKC has not been perfect as of late and Kevin Martin is marred in a semi-slump that has a lot to do with his minutes. Every matchup will be gold. From SAS or OKC against HOU or LAL to the way Denver is playing and a Memphis team that imposes its will I am stoked. I think the worst team in the West Playoffs will be Golden State, and they could always shoot themselves to a few wins especially against the Clippers. 

If Parker is healthy I like the Spurs because barring an insane shooting night from Perkins and Ibaka I think they would have won that series last year. However, if Parker has any trouble getting back to health it would not surprise me if any of the 5 seeds made it to the finals simply because of the possible matchups. The Nuggets are not afraid of the Thunder. We have seen what Memphis can do to the Spurs. The Clippers just have not been could against top teams. I can't wait. I love playoff hoops so I am curious to here what you guys think.  How confident are you in OKC MIA rematch Eddie?
 
LeBron vs. KD Part II?
 
ER: Not confident in a MIA-OKC series at all, but truthfully I wasn't last year either. People often bring up the Ibaka/Perkins game as the reason OKC won the series, but it was James Harden, who the Spurs had absolutely no answer to. His surge coincided with Thabo picking up Parker full-time defensively, but Harden's playmaking was the catalyst for the Thunder. He is no longer there. I liked Martin before Brooks started inexplicably giving some of his minutes to Fisher. If he plays over 8 minutes a game, the writing is on the wall.

I like San Antonio to make the finals, because they play playoff defense and have a guy who you trust to make a play or score a basket (Parker). A good reason to pick the Grizzlies as well, but they don't know they have that kind of guy (Gasol). OKC doesn't play postseason defense, overuse guys with overrated "intangibles" (Perkins, Fisher), and don't run enough set plays, favoring iso ball from one of their two scorers. I've been avoiding it for years, but this is Scott Brooks aka Scotty Brooks aka Liam Neeson's fault.

Charlie, who do you like to actually come out of the West? Then give me your regular season awards.
 
CO: A person could reasonably take Denver out West because of its homecourt advantage, they could take Oklahoma City because they have the pedigree, drive, and Durant has only gotten better. They could take San Antonio because they're amazingly efficient both defensively and offensively (same pedigree argument there, too), or you could argue the Clippers simply based on the merits of Chris Paul (you remember him two years ago vs. the Lakers in the playoffs? He's sort of motivated.). Lastly, you could argue Memphis because they're just plain mean and they have the best overall big man currently in the game.
I'll take San Antonio. Tony Parker, a former NBA Finals MVP (thanks for letting him play against eric snow, damon jones, and boobie freaking gibson, whose names I refuse even to capitalize), has only gotten better. Tim Duncan doesn't need elaboration. And their "x-factor," Tiago Splitter, is playing for a contract. Add in Popovich and you got yourself a spicy, delicious soup.

MVP: LeBron James. Any discussion of this award is to sell advertising.
Defensive player of the year: Tim Duncan. This award, to me, is between Duncan and Hibbert, each of whom averages 2.7 blocks on fewer than 30 minutes per game. While "blocks" shouldn't be a reason to vote for a guy coughIbakacough, these two players get the type that stay in bounds for teammates to acquire. The two difference-makers: Duncan plays with Tiago Splitter while Hibbert plays with David West; comparatively, Duncan never fouls to garner those blocks. He is so tall, lengthy and smart he just forms a wall.
Rookie of the year: Damian Lillard. Davis is the better player, Lillard had more of an impact.
Coach of the year: Tom Thibodeau. The most provably-capable defensive wizard in history, this guy is fucking ridiculous. No Derrick Rose, no Omer Asik, dogshit guards, dealing with Carlos Boozer. There's really not enough you can say about this guy. Popovich is another choice because he's the best there ever was, and for him to manage Duncan's, Parker's and Ginobili's minutes the way he has has been appalling. You could argue Spoelstra, but no one ever will because DUDE HE BARLEY HAS 2 COACH HE HAS LEBRON. Mark Jackson is another name, because the two most useful basketball players on his team were either about to get hurt (Curry) or proactively injured (Bogut).
Sixth man of the year: If Tiago Splitter hadn't already started 45 games, I'd have picked him, but I suppose this is Crawford's award to lose. JR Smith will get tons of votes because he's been the Knicks' most useful overall guard this season, but his percentages will scare voters. Jack and Landry will cancel each other out in the Bay, Kevin Martin is the worst defensive player of all time, and JaVale McGee, active NBA leader in ratio of capital letters to lowercase letters in his name, has the type of reputation people don't vote for. Crawford.
Most improved player: Andray Blatche, the worst guy in the world.

Did I miss any? I'm at work, so I don't have the means to look much up, but those are what I got so far.
 
BM: MVP: The King. Will probably set the NBA record for most MVPs before it is all said and done. A guy everyone should make sure they appreciate. 

DPOY: Marc Gasol. Duncan is a solid pick but I honestly believe no player impacts the defense of their team more than Gasol. Fundamentally sound and an actual defensive player unlike Ibaka who makes all the wrong rotations and cheats for blocks. 

Rookie: This is Lillard in a landslide although Bradley Beal is an interesting player to keep an eye on going foward. He is markedly better with John Wall on the floor and looks like he might turn out to be the shooter many predicted. 

Coach of the Year: My toughest choice. Ever the contrarian I'd love to give it to Spo because the Lakers show just how hard it is to get a group of superstars to buy into each others games on a nightly basis and the Heat are on a tear. I'm giving it to Lionel Hollins. This Memphis team is not supremely talented but they work as hard as anyone and buy into Hollins tough defensive system. Team outside OKC and SAS with best chance to make a run in West. 

6th Man: Jarrett Jack. Surprised the heck out of me with the the season he has put together and makes Steph Curry so dangerous off the ball. Plus if you watch the end of GSW games it is Jack who is controlling the tempo and deciding who takes the last shots. 

Most Improved: James Harden. He won't win the award and by most standards he probably shouldn't. His teammate Omer Asik is probably more likely to win the award than Harden is. Want to know how much he improved in one year. In the offseason the Wizards refused to trade Bradley Beal straight up for him and the Warriors refused to trade Klay Thompson.

Always acting like total bros
CO: Great picks, but the reason the Warriors wouldn't trade for Harden it is because they couldn't afford to pay him. 

Harden is a good choice, but he is too good in the pick and roll to have that bad an assist to turnover ratio, and watching him play defense makes my eyes bleed like a Sam Raimi movie. But it's definitely close, and I wouldn't mind seeing him win. Great player, so fun to watch. He'll age like Paul Pierce, too.
Hollins and Gasol both rule, good calls.
 
ER: MVP: Plays for Miami, isn't Rashard Lewis. 

DPOY: SCREW YOU MUSTO FOR TAKING MY PICK. No offense Charlie, but I don't think it's close after Gasol and Noah, and it should be Gasol. In general, he is the most self-aware man on the floor, and makes every teammate better defensively. Great rotator, smart in transition, alters shots, LOUD communicator. Makes the Griz go on that end.

Rookie: It's Lillard, but I think both Davis and Beal will be better players when it's all said and done. This is coming from a guy who owns a shirt with 'ILLARD' on the front.

Coach: Spo. But I'm tempted to say Pop. I think he only has one in his career.

6th man: I also think it's Jack. This is his best season, and he's also the second best guy on the floor for that struggling team. Every time I watch them, seems like they force 30-footers to Curry every possession.

Most improved: Based on the last two weeks alone I would argue Monta Ellis (I won't get fooled by contract years). I guess it's Harden, but I'd rather talk about his teammate Chandler 'Handsome' Parsons. Man is that squad fun to watch.

Chuck, lets hear your All-NBA teams (off and def)
 
CO: Gasol is a great player for sure. I think he has defensive player of the year pretty much sewn up, I know he has tons of momentum, so I suppose you could say my picks were contrarian. Noah is great against the pick and roll, and he has been much worse guards in front of him than any of Duncan, Gasol or Hibbert. Any of them are great picks; you saw that I referred to Gasol as the best all-around big man in the game right now. A huge portion of that is what he does defensively.
First Team All-NBA
Chris Paul
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
LeBron James
Tim Duncan
 
Second Team All-NBA
Tony Parker
Russell Westbrook
Kobe Bryant
Carmelo Anthony
Marc Gasol

Third Team All-NBA
Kyrie Irving
Stephen Curry
James Harden
Blake Griffin
Brook Lopez

First Team NBA All-Defense
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
LeBron James
Tim Duncan
Marc Gasol
 
Second Team NBA All-Defense
Chris Paul
Paul George
David West
Joakim Noah
Roy Hibbert
 
BM: I'm going to go traditional position by position to make this fun. Only admitted switch will be LeBron as first team PF.

First Team All-NBA
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Kobe Bryant
SF: Durant
PF: LeBron James
C: Marc Gasol

Second Team All-NBA
PG: Tony Parker
SG: James Harden
SF: Carmelo Anthony (I know he plays the 4)
PF: Tim Duncan
C: Dwight Howard

Third Team All-NBA
PG: Russell Westbroom
SG: Dwayne Wade
SF: Paul Pierce
PF: Blake Griffin
C: Joakim Noah

First Team NBA All-Defense
G: Tony Allen
G: Andre Iguodala
F: LeBron James
F: Tim Duncan
C: Marc Gasol
 
Second Team NBA All-Defense
G: Paul George
G: Chris Paul
F: Kevin Garnett
F: Larry Sanders
C: Joakim Noah
 
ER: Our teams don't vary too much.

First Team All-NBA
Chris Paul
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Durant
LeBron James
Marc Gasol


Second Team All-NBA
Tony Parker
Dwyane Wade
Carmelo Anthony
Blake Griffin
Tim Duncan


Third Team All-NBA
Russell Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
James Harden
Paul George
Joakim Noah


First Team NBA All-Defense

Avery Bradley
Paul George
LeBron James
Kevin Garnett
Marc Gasol


Second Team NBA All-Defense
Chris Paul
Tony Allen
Andre Iguodala
Larry Sanders
Joakim Noah


This was fun. Let's do this again sometime.
 
 
 

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